Study: UFC events reduce bar fights

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A new study compared ratings for TUF and UFC main events to rates of violent crime in the US.

Last month the National Bureau of Economic Research released a paper titled Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content. The paper documented a study by economists from Texas A&M University, Montana State University and the University of Oregon that concluded that the rise of The Ultimate Fighter may have reduced the rate of violent crime in the US.

The study gathered ratings data from TUF, from its inaugural season in 2005 up until its 20th season in 2014, then compared those numbers to crime data from law enforcement agencies across the U.S. and the FBI.

According to the study, rates of violent crime were immediately effected by the commencement of season one of TUF. The study found that this drop in violent crime represented the largest change in the data for the entire period they examined. The study also noted that in the three months leading up to the TUF premiere, there were no noticeable changes in the rates of violent crime they examined.

The drops in crime were most noticeable when looking at incidents of assault. There was also a small drop in the number of rapes. There were no significant changes to rates of murder.

The study also reported that violent crime continued to trend down after TUF: 1 ended. The downward trend in violent crime continued until the 11th and 12th seasons of TUF and the off seasons in-between.

Regarding TUF: 1 the study calculated that for every 0.1 percent increase in ratings (which represents 1,202 additional viewers in the average U.S. county), violent crime decreased by 0.64 percent over a five year period. That reduction represents 8.7 fewer violent crimes per month in an average county or 7.2 fewer violent crimes monthly per 1,000 individuals who were exposed to TUF:1.

The study noted that the viewership for The Ultimate Fighter, and its former broadcaster Spike TV, was of the same demographic that is disproportionately responsible for violent crime; young men.

The study also analyzed whether UFC main events had any effect on the rates of violent crime. To test this the study analyzed viewership date for 91 main events between August 2010 through to December 2016. They compared those numbers with hourly crime rate data taken from the FBI’s National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS).

For this experiment, the study focused on assaults and assaults in bars.

The study found that there was a 1.7 percent reduction in assaults during the hour after a UFC main event began airing. For assaults in bars, the study found that there was a 0.1 reduction in the second hour after the event began airing. The study found there were smaller reductions in the third and fourth hours, but that those were too small to be considered significant.

In their conclusion the authors of the study wrote that, “Taken literally, this evidence suggests that violent media content may be a part of the solution to societal violence, and not a factor contributing to the the problem. Less ambitiously, our read of the evidence must at least suggest that violent media content is not necessarily harmful in the short run or, now, in the long run.”

The study authors concluded that, though they did not wish to rule out that viewing TUF and the UFC had potential psychological effects “regarding the ways that individuals’ think about the desirability of engaging in anti-social behavior”, a likely reason why crime rates went down was because people who would be committing such crimes were watching TUF or the UFC instead.

The study’s authors also theorized that a reason for the drop in crime rates to have leveled off after the 12th season was that the novelty and newness of TUF and the UFC played a role in the initial reduction of violent crime.

“Given the current body of evidence, we think it appropriate to suggest caution in makingany strong policy prescriptions one way or the other,” concluded the study. “In terms of the long-run causal effects, having introduced the first-such estimates to the literature—from the lab or the natural environment—we believe it is important to recognize that we provide but one data point that speaks to a very complicated question involving the effects of a diverse set of content that is typically lumped together as “violent media content.” It will be critical for future research to try to understand whether violent media content is violent crime-reducing in general or whether there is something peculiar about the content we examine.”