UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes staff picks and predictions

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes fight card in Chicago, Illinois.

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 238, and brace yourselves, because somehow it ended up that only Anton Tabuena ended up going with Henry Cejudo over Marlon Moraes for the vacant men’s bantamweight title. It’s a clean sweep for Valentina Shevchenko to defend her women’s flyweight title vs. Jessica Eye. This obviously means Cejudo and Eye will win. Nick Baldwin was also the lone person to side with Donald Cerrone over Tony Ferguson, so I guess Cowboy has this in the bag too.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes

Anton Tabuena: That little “bump” on his knee kinda made this even harder to pick for me. Cejudo has been improving at an insane rate from fight to fight, and he should be faster and possibly slightly more technical in most areas as well. But Moraes is no joke and his size, strength, and insane finishing ability could play a big factor in the stand up, especially if Cejudo’s knee (and his takedowns) are somewhat compromised. I was leaning ever so slightly towards Cejudo before these injury rumors, and now I’m even less confident in my pick. Henry Cejudo by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: I am super glad Anton took Cejudo because we would get roasted for unanimous picks in both title fights. Frankly I’m surprised how lopsided it’s been in Moraes’ favor. Cejudo is a phenomenal wrestler, a fast fighter, a tremendous athlete, he’s tough as hell, and his cardio is great. He has made ridiculous strides since the loss to Demetrious Johnson. Now with that in mind… can that translate against the elite of 135 while competing at 135 lbs? Because Marlon Moraes has been ridiculous since the rough Assuncao loss-Dodson narrow win start to his UFC career. The fight is largely going to be decided on whether or not Moraes can deal with Cejudo’s wrestling and especially those trips in the clinch. Beyond that, Moraes is the better, more powerful striker. There’s more depth to his game and he’s a multi-faceted finisher. The longer this fight plays out on Moraes’ terms, the more likely it is that Cejudo ends up taking an L. This should be a great matchup and I get that people are tired of the champ-champ stuff, but this is a high-level contest. Marlon Moraes by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: What Moraes can do to stop a wrestler of Cejudo’s caliber is a huge X factor. Outside of just assuming that Frankie Edgar is a fantastic prep partner, there’s really no telling. Moraes’ fights have led him to very few wrestling exchanges in the past few years. That said, the dynamic of wrestlers moving up in weight to take on bigger competition feels generally much less successful than strikers who try the same. Outside of the wrestling game, both men have speed and power, but Cejudo has a lot less depth and skill standing. He’s still learning the fundamentals of counter-striking and often just leads and depends on his insane toughness and speed to see him through. If he’s going to get stuck kickboxing for extended periods against Moraes, I can’t depend on that alone being enough to give him rounds. Moraes is too good off his back foot, and too creative in open space. Marlon Moraes via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Cejudo: Anton
Staff picking Moraes: Phil, Mookie, Nick, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Harry, Tim

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye

Anton Tabuena: Shevchenko is just straight up better everywhere. I expect her to do what she does, and methodically dismantle Jessica Eye on the feet and in the clinch. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Yeah other than being a pretty good athlete and having usually solid takedown defense, I don’t see the avenues to victory for Jessica Eye. She’s not a powerful enough fighter to finish Shevchenko with strikes, and Shevchenko is strong enough to make life hell for Eye on the ground. In a kickboxing battle, Eye may have more volume but she’s going to be open to counters. This is Valentina’s fight to lose. Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Eye seems constantly at odds between feeling like she should counter-strike and that she has to lead to win. It often leads to awkward periods of hesitancy, marked by wild blitzing combos. It’s the second part that’s especially worrying, since Shevchenko is a pure counter striker, and has only become more comfortable letting her hands go at 125. As we’ve also seen, if Eye can crash the pocket to the clinch, Shevchenko is great at using power and deft technique to throw opponents off balance and hit takedowns. There’s just no clear path for Eye to win given her game, unless he catches Shevchenko with something totally wild. Valentina Shevchenko by decision.

Staff picking Shevchenko: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Phil, Stephie, Zane, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Eye:

Donald Cerrone vs. Tony Ferguson

Anton Tabuena: Like the main event, the question marks surrounding Ferguson is giving me a bit of pause. I am also curious to see if Ferguson tries to test his unorthodox grappling with Cerrone’s submission game, but either way, this should be a fantastic fight wherever the fight takes place. Cerrone has looked incredible as of late, and I’m actually rooting for him to pull it off and go on a late-career run at that belt, but I just feel like Ferguson’s insane pace and power might overwhelm him here.

PS: I don’t care if this isn’t the main event, this should also be five rounds. Tony Ferguson by late TKO.

Mookie Alexander: I really don’t want either of these guys to lose. Cerrone is absolutely equipped to punish Ferguson for his recklessness, particularly early in fights, and Cerrone is one of the best finishers in the sport. That said, if Cerrone doesn’t get Ferguson out of there early, though? That’s trouble, because El Cucuy can just systematically break people down with his pressure and his whirlwind of offense. His durability is insane and he’s often dangerous even when hurt. A big question mark for me is whether Cerrone will pursue a reactive takedown and will these two grapple? Because that could really produce something chaotic. I love Cerrone’s resurgence and think his striking can win him the fight, but Ferguson will be too much as the fight progresses. Tony Ferguson by TKO, round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: This is broadly similar to the dynamics which were at play in TonyFest- in terms of directionality of movement, pace, physical attributes (reach etc) Ferguson is an absolute nightmare for Cerrone. Much like Pettis, however, Cerrone is a tremendously dangerous finisher. Ferguson’s defense is not great and he is a woefully slow starter who generally gets hit and hurt at least once. Would I be shocked to see him run straight onto a Cerrone jab, left hook or headkick, or even a reactive double leg into a submission? Not in the slightest. That being said, Ugly Tony still represents a terrible style matchup for Cerrone, and while Cowboy has been on a resurgence, it’s typically been against styles which he’s always handled well - footslow bangers, sporadic blitzers etc. Ferguson represents an archetype which Cerrone has just never shown the ability to beat, with the possible exception of Matt Brown. Tony Ferguson by TKO, round 3.

Zane Simon: This fight is going to be wild. Both men tend to be at their worst and slowest early in fights. And that could easily mean that Ferguson gets hurt bad trying to start fast, and/or that Cerrone gets the time he needs to get comfortable and really start letting his combos go. However, Ferguson’s creativity, comfort, and complete fearlessness out at range and his unstoppable willingness to ramp up aggression and pressure make me feel like he’s much more in the classic mold of fighters that have been able to break Cerrone’s game than recent opponents Cerrone has beat. If Cerrone can stay sharp and focused, Ferguson will absolutely give him opportunities to hit him hard, but all the while, Ferguson will be walking him down and drilling him with combo after combo after combo. Tony Ferguson via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Cerrone: Nick
Staff picking Ferguson: Phil, Mookie, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Harry, Tim

Petr Yan vs. Jimmie Rivera

Mookie Alexander: Rivera can either be a dangerous, aggressive pocket boxer who also has fast and stinging calf kicks… or he’ll be the counterpuncher who forfeits any sort of offense and gets frustrated. I don’t think he can keep up with Yan’s pressure, pace, or depth of striking, and I’m skeptical that he can make this a grinding type of fight in which he takes Yan down and holds him there. Petr Yan by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Rivera at least won’t be at the physical disadvantage he was in his last fight: as a somewhat stumpy counterpuncher he was stranded by Sterling and had to rush forward, allowing Sterling to tie up with him. The disadvantage is that Yan seems like a poor style matchup. Yan’s aggressive style should theoretically feed Rivera the counters he wants, but Yan is one of the best around at integrating defense into an offensive style, and his pace seems primed to bury Rivera as the fight goes on. Petr Yan by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: We can’t curse Petr Yan can we? We very well may. Rivera is mostly a somewhat more difficult version of a test Yan has already passed. A reasonably defensively sound counter-puncher with some good power and with more variety in his strike selection than most of the fighters Yan has beat. But, fighters who are willing to give Yan the opportunity to lead tend to have already lost the fight against him. Let him get on the front foot, push you back, and dictate the pocket, and he’ll figure out your defense and your offense. If Rivera can go back to some of his more brawling ways from a couple years ago, he may be able to stand in and trade with Yan and land the bigger shots, but Rivera has gotten hurt a few times doing that, himself. Petr Yan via TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Yan: Phil, Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Rivera:

Tai Tuivasa vs. Blagoi Ivanov

Anton Tabuena: Tough pick, but with heavyweights, it’s probably wise to pick the younger, faster, stronger guy. Tai Tuivasa by KO.

Mookie Alexander: This fight could be terrible and you know it. I am not really sure Tuivasa is all that great. His list of victories is thoroughly underwhelming outside of Andrei Arlovski, and he struggled with him. He’s clearly a good athlete and powerful, but as far as how actually skilled he is… I’m not sold on his upside. Ivanov is experienced and has fought higher-level competition, is super tough -- I mean, he was almost stabbed to death, that goes without saying -- and even in an ugly-ass fight with Ben Rothwell he did land some good shots. Just hope this ends in round one. Blagoi Ivanov by split decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Not really a Tuivasa believer. I’m not particularly convinced that Ivanov beat Rothwell, but he was up against a pretty significant reach disparity and still managed to ding Rothwell up repeatedly. Tuivasa still just seems to have tons of holes in his game, and his strengths seem limited to some surprising speed, a booming left hook and extreme durability. Blagoi Ivanov by split decision.

Zane Simon: Ivanov is more experienced and a lot more patient and composed than Tuivasa, and if Tuivasa just blows through his energy in a round, Ivanov may dismantle him on the counter. But, Ivanov has generally struggled to beat better athletes. He’s a tiny heavyweight and while he’s got shockingly fast hands, he’s not otherwise a physical marvel. Tuivasa is huge and powerful, and very fast for his division. We’ve also now seen him slog through 3 hard rounds to get a win. I’m just slightly more confident his speed and power will win out than I am that Ivanov can do what JDS did while surviving the shots JDS took. Tai Tuivasa via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Tuivasa: Nick, Anton, Dayne, Zane, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Ivanov: Mookie, Phil, Stephie

Tatiana Suarez vs. Nina Ansaroff

Anton Tabuena: Ansaroff has been on a good run, but I’ve been greatly impressed with Suarez lately. Tatiana Suarez by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Ansaroff has improved substantially from her earlier fights. That Claudia Gadelha win was really outstanding and really should justify giving her a much better shot at beating Suarez than the odds suggest. I am still quite skeptical about how good Suarez’s game will hold up when she can’t dominate her opponents with her (phenomenal) wrestling and grappling. Unfortunately for Ansaroff, there’s a world of difference topping Gadelha’s takedowns and Suarez’s. This is where Tatiana’s athleticism is going to matter so much here. Tatiana Suarez by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: I feel like the heavy odds on Suarez are a reflection of recency bias and a fortunate physicality interplay- while the way she destroyed Esparza was undeniably impressive, it did also feel that Suarez’ bodylock takedowns are particularly primed to work against a tiny strawweight like the former champ. Against someone taller, I think she might struggle to put her shoulder under her opponent’s chin and just kind of stand up? She’s still a woeful striker who bumrushes her way inside, and Ansaroff has become an increasingly impressive and clinical outside kickboxer. I guess I still don’t trust Ansaroff’s basic lack of athleticism, but nor would I be surprised to see Suarez get shut out. Tatiana Suarez by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Ansaroff is a really really decent fighter. She’s patched up a lot of the holes classically present in her game, notably her tendency to panic when pushed backward. She still tends to start cold however, and almost always gives up at least one early easy takedown. One may just be too many against Suarez, who seems to have that kind of momentum based wrestling where once she makes something work, it just gets easier and more dominant. If Ansaroff can survive round 1, read Suarez’s entries and stuff them, she has a chance to turn this fight totally on its head. If not, she’ll probably be getting dominated from bell to bell. Tatiana Suarez by decision.

Staff picking Suarez: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Phil, Zane, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Ansaroff:

Aljamain Sterling vs. Pedro Munhoz

Anton Tabuena: Despite their Sterling reputations, I kinda haven’t been incredibly impressed, in a sense that I feel like they’re both a few levels below the elite of the division. But since most of the BW elite now are either from a different division, forever suspended or forever injured, I guess they’re part of that group now... by default? Maybe? Not really? Oh, my pick. Yeah, I guess Munhoz is more likely to win on the feet. Pedro Munhoz by Decision.

Phil Mackenzie: What a great fight. Both men have improved their striking in radically different directions: Sterling has become a far cleaner boxer to complement his kicks, tamping down his gas tank issues and working on his defense. Munhoz has upped the aggression even more, learning how to pull out and exploit exchanges with tighter punching form and his still-granite chin. The big question is if Munhoz can pressure Sterling into shooting on him, which opens up the possibility of some incredible scrambles. However, rangy or high-movement fighters have historically troubled Munhoz somewhat (Dodson, Font, Scoggins etc) so I think Sterling can cut him up from the outside - even if Sterling does go for takedowns, I’m not totally convinced that Munhoz can exploit him. Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Sterling has been talking about how he doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his defensive ability and... well, this is the time to prove it. He’s faster than Munhoz and has a lot more variety to his strikes. But, Munhoz is impossibly tough and willing to throw heavy punches at all times. What Sterling did to Rivera may end up with a lot more fists flying back at him here. Plus, he likely won’t have the wrestling tie-ups to lean on when he crashes the pocket, given Munhoz’s aggressive power sub game. That could be wrong, Sterling may be able to just take Munhoz down and stifle him, but I won’t know that until I see it. In the meantime, I think Munhoz is just too unwilling to be cowed by Sterling’s length and creativity to let him win a kickboxing battle without taking heavy damage. Pedro Munhoz via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Sterling: Phil, Mookie, Nick, Dayne, Stephie, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Munhoz: Anton, Zane

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Alexa Grasso

Anton Tabuena: This should be a fun fight, but Kowalkiewicz should be far more technical on the feet, and I think that’s why she takes this. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision.

Zane Simon: Kowalkiewicz absolutely SHOULD win this fight, but there’s also a very real possibility that her style of relentless chasing and volume with no head movement and little cage cutting has been solved. Michelle Waterson some of the same traits as Grasso (namely her speed) and she was able to break form to take Kowalkiewicz apart, while being the smaller woman. However, a big part of what made that work for Waterson was her unwillingness to stay tied up with KK in tight. Land a couple hard shots, get back outside, force Kowalkiewicz to re-pursue. If Grasso can do that, she can win. But, she seems to really view the clinch as a safety valve in her fights and often uses it to stifle opponents who are trying to pressure her. Against Kowalkiewicz, I think that just means she fights KK’s fight. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but I kind of feel like there’s just a point at which fighters like Grasso overtake fighters like Kowalkiewicz. Karolina just isn’t that good on the feet, and Grasso has shown flashes of genuine high-level skill. Based on their most recent fights, the smart pick is that Kowalkiewicz out-grits her, but I’m going to take a gamble on Grasso’s progression and bet on her to figure out a fairly solvable style matchup. Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Kowalkiewicz: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Harry, Tim
Staff picking Grasso: Phil

Ricardo Lamas vs. Calvin Kattar

Zane SImon: Not having seen Kattar face a fighter with the wrestling skill of Ricardo Lamas, it’s hard to say if his strong takedown defense will hold up to the task in front of him. But, given that Kattar’s fighting style is built around patient, fundament kickboxing, and a lack of the kind of wild aggression that would put him in easy range for a reactive double, I think he can make it work. Lamas is a jack of all trades. Adept everywhere, but can be beaten anywhere by superb technicians as well. If Kattar can stick him in a range kickboxing battle, I just think he’ll give Lamas too little to work with to win rounds. Moreso, since it seems like Lamas’ striking may be losing a touch of its edge lately. Calvin Kattar by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Lamas has on occasion taken large swathes of time off in his fights, settling into meandering kickboxing matches. Should he do that here, Kattar is a better jabber and a more nuanced defensive boxer. However, Lamas has also shown a variety of tools which could potentially trouble Kattar: a nasty calf kick and an ability to start quickly being the primary ones. Kattar often seems to get into some trouble early, and Lamas is very good at capitalizing. Lamas himself can likely draw Kattar into jabbing exchanges and then counter the jab with the leg kick, as Moicano did. All this depends on him being appropriately aggressive and dictating the pace, but given that I’ll take Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Lamas: Phil, Anton, Tim
Staff picking Kattar: Mookie, Nick, Dayne, Stephie, Zane, Harry

Angela Hill vs. Xiaonan Yan

Anton Tabuena: This is actually a far more intriguing bout to me than the original match up, as it pits a heavy Muay Thai based fighter with a Wushu/Sanda expert in the UFC. Both are very technical on the feet and a lot of fun to watch, so this should be a treat for me to watch either way. Yan had a full training camp though, and I feel like she pushes a faster, and more physical pace and that might spell trouble Hill. Yan Xiaonan by Decision.

Zane SImon: Strikers that can push an even pace and land consistently are always going to be trouble for Hill. She’s not bad at connecting with solid shots, herself, but tends to vacillate between a high tempo, low power, high movement style, and a slower, wide swinging, plant and punch style. And the second one, especially tends to get her hit a lot. Xiaonan Yan just wants to counter in combination. The moment her opponent’s arm or leg leaves a neutral position, she’s throwing three strikes back at them. That just seems like that kind of fight that Hill is destined to be competitive in, and make fun, but slowly lose. Xiaonan Yan by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Hill is a tricky fighter to get a bead on. On the one hand her losses look more forgivable when you consider that, say, Ansaroff is one fight away from fighting for a belt. On the other hand, she also really lacks signature wins. She almost certainly can’t win at the elite level, but there’s a question as to how much her leafblower style can pick up wins just beneath that. It’s not exactly like Yan has been beating tremendous competition herself. I’ve been burned by sentimentally picking Hill too many times so... I’m going to do it again! Hill may not be powerful or even terribly consistent, but she’s not as purely sloppy as Yan. Angela Hill by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Hill: Mookie, Harry, Tim, Phil
Staff picking Yan: Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Zane

Bevon Lewis vs. Darren Stewart

Zane Simon: Lewis is really good at power clinch fighting. Stewart seems prone to panicking and trying to hulk his way out of situations, and often falls straight into the clinch. Seems like a really bad matchup for Stewart to me. Especially since he’s got a lot less of the inexplicably one-shot kill striking that Uriah Hall possesses. Bevon Lewis via TKO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: I was impressed by Bevon Lewis in his debut against Uriah Hall. He showed that he’s more than just a violent clinch machine, and utilized exactly the right pressure gameplan to get to a rangy, skittish kickboxer. That he got randomly blown up for it anyway is just one of the occupational hazards of fighting Hall. I like Stewart a lot, but unfortunately he hasn’t figured out how to strike with consistency, and is most effective in tie-ups where Lewis is equally or more dangerous. Bevon Lewis by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Lewis: Nick, Anton, Dayne, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Stewart: Mookie, Stephie, Harry, Tim

Eddie Wineland vs. Grigory Popov

Anton Tabuena: Wait, Wineland is only 34? And he’s somehow younger than this UFC newcomer? WHAT THE... Also, WECNEVERDIE, so I’m picking Eddie Wineland by TKO.

Zane Simon: Looking at Popov’s age, can-crushing MMA record, and fight footage (he’s super easy to take down) makes it seem like a slam dunk to pick against him here. Then you look at Wineland’s record and realize that most of the better strikers he’s faced have beat him. And it’s almost impossible for me to remember the last time he hit a takedown (it was 2012, I checked). I picked Wineland on the Vivi, for sentiment’s sake and because Popov is such a can crusher. But to once again avoid the BE curse and, just because Popov does have some seriously dangerous striking form. Grigory Popov via KO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Popov is a bit of a can crusher, but the last time Wineland fought a kickboxing specialist who he should have wrecked on paper he got turned into a Mortal Kombat fatality by Johnny Eduardo. Wineland hasn’t really aggressively wrestled since WEC and I don’t trust his durability or will to win any more. Grigory Popov by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Wineland: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Popov: Zane, Tim, Phil

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Joanne Calderwood

Mookie Alexander: HUT HUT HUT. Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Seeing everyone pick Calderwood really really makes me feel like I should pick Chookagian, especially since I think she’s the much more obvious round winner here. A lot of what I’m banking on from JoJo is that her camp can put together a really strong approach to counter Chookagian’s high output, low accuracy (and low power) kickboxing. Namely, lots of low kicks, and lots of pressure into the clinch for takedowns. If Calderwood can do that, the path is there for her to win. But, she also tends to be a really bad starter and Chookagian is very much a front runner. So just to stop the BE curse, I’ll take Katlyn Chookagian by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Despite being featherfisted as all hell, Chookagian has been one of the flyweights who has actually been able to hang physically with former bantams like Jessica Eye. While Calderwood remains a tough out and the bigger hitter of the two, I tend to share Zane’s thoughts that Chookagian can pick up an early lead and then it not exactly sit on it, then flail a bit so that it doesn’t get away from her too much. Katlyn Chookagian by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Chookagian: Zane, Tim, Phil
Staff picking Calderwood: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Stephie, Harry